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What Should the betting line or spread was established by four sports advisory companies without collusion or previous familiarity with each others numbers!
Lets face some facts concerning this number or point spread that usually comes from one Sports Advisory Group. This number is sold or distributed to the sports betting outlets online as well as the legal Sports Books in Nevada. These outlets put their little tweak on the line by 1/2 point or 1 point or perhaps an extra $5 on the cash odds. On the contrary, everyone will post their number which is the same or in a point of each other. This really is the equal of price fixing and collusion in any other industry.
How come the Sports Betting Industry has the exact same price or spread on their own betting board? WHY – because nobody wishes to rock the boat!
What if this process of establishing a betting line was not much of a monopoly but was provided by at least four sports consulting groups which were independent of each other. Each group would then post their calculated number for the worldwide sports betting outlets to buy and use for their operation.
This new mode of operation would unlock the monopoly that exists when the line is established. Now what happens? Would some books dare to post numbers that can be not the same as others by 4 or 5 points either way. I doubt it since nobody desires to rock that boat. Is this collusion by the sports books so they may keep their share of the market and not create a price or point spread war.
The process of constructing the point spread number is probably done through a software program with all of the statistics and other information to get a base number. Then the actual number is refined to include public perception as to where the public will place their cash. It is no secret that Sports Books speculate or predict at what number the general public will be evenly divided.
There are a variety of times when the line is not even close to the final score. They do come close about 65% of the time. On the contrary, when the spread is minus 7 and the favorite wins by 21 points or the underdog wins outright, their number is way off.
If that minus 7 point favorite is listed at minus 11 points at another outlet would there be a Revolution among Sports Book operators. Would this difference of opinion cause a lot of anxiety with casino management. I am sure they might question each others actions after doing the same thing together all these years.
For a true and balanced market to emerge within any industry, there should be some options and competition among the players involved. A Betting Exchange is quite close to a far more balanced betting market considering that the competition is against other bettors. The spread is the same but the money odds are a lot easier better with more options.
In the event the Sports Books in Nevada and excellent online football gambling site books elect to re-arrange their Sports Book operations to include some alternatives to the spread, they are going to boost their handle and be more competitive. I would install some form of Spread Betting that is big in Europe. Allow more options with alternative lines and charge just a little more vigorish. Some online books have alternative run lines on baseball. They post the run line at minus 1.5 runs on the favorite and underdog in the same game.
The Sports Betting outlets need to become more innovative to maintain a marketplace share. We know they probably will not “rock that boat” unless one or even more sports betting venues develops a rogue or maverick mentality. This could be a big gamble which could payoff and increase share of the market. On the other hand, it really is ironical that sports books don’t want to be in the gambling business. They just want to collect their commission and avoid too much risk. They’re more worried about the heavy hitters than the small average recreational bettors who lose more frequently.
Promoting or seeing changes in almost any financial markets is similar to getting people to stop smoking or obese people to lose weight. Change is difficult for a great deal of individuals and businesses. As they say “talk is cheap”. Alternatively, I feel technology is becoming more prevalent in Sport Betting industry. Hopefully, it will create a more vibrant market with better options as well as more competition in the sports betting community.