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What If the betting line or spread was established by four sports advisory companies without collusion or previous comprehension of each others numbers!
Lets face some facts concerning this number or point spread that usually comes from one Sports Advisory Group. This number is sold or distributed to the sports betting outlets online and also the legal Sports Books in Nevada. These outlets put their little tweak on the line by 1/2 point or 1 point or Kskccs website even an extra $5 on the cash odds. On the contrary, everybody will post their number which is the same or in a point of each other. This really is the equal of price fixing and collusion in any other industry.
How come the Sports Betting Industry has the exact same price or spread on their own betting board? WHY – because nobody wants to rock the boat!
What if this process of establishing a betting line was not much of a monopoly but was provided by at least four sports consulting groups that were independent of each other. Each group would then post their calculated number for the worldwide sports betting outlets to buy and use for their operation.
This new mode of operation would unlock the monopoly that exists in the event the line is established. Now what happens? Would some books dare to post numbers that will be distinctive from others by 4 or 5 points either way. I doubt it since nobody wishes to rock that boat. Is this collusion by the sports books so also they can keep their share of the market and not create a price or point spread war.
The process of constructing the point spread number is probably done through a software program with all the statistics and other information to get a base number. Then the actual number is refined to include public perception as to where the public will place their cash. It really is no secret that Sports Books speculate or predict at what number the general public will be evenly divided.
There are a variety of occasions when the line is just not even close to the final score. They do come close about 65% of the time. On the contrary, when the spread is minus 7 and the favorite wins by 21 points or perhaps the underdog wins outright, their number is way off.
If that minus 7 point favorite is listed at minus 11 points at another outlet would there be a Revolution among Sports Book operators. Would this difference of opinion cause a whole lot of anxiety with casino management. I am sure they will question each others actions after doing the exact same thing together all these years.
For a true and balanced market to emerge in almost any industry, there should be some options and competition among the players involved. A Betting Exchange is very close to a far more balanced betting market considering that the levels of competition are against other bettors. The spread will be the same but the money odds are a lot easier better with more options.
Should the Sports Books in Nevada and online books opt to re-arrange their Sports Book operations to include some alternatives to the spread, they’re going to improve their handle and be more competitive. I would install some type of Spread Betting which is big in Europe. Allow more options with alternative lines and charge a little more vigorish. Some online books have alternative run lines on baseball. They post the run line at minus 1.5 runs on the favorite and underdog within the same game.
The Sports Betting outlets need to become more innovative to maintain a share of the market. We know they probably will not “rock that boat” unless one or maybe more sports betting venues develops a rogue or maverick mentality. This would be a big gamble which could payoff and increase share of the market. On the other hand, it is ironical that sports books do not want to be within the gambling business. They just want to collect their commission and avoid too much risk. They are more concerned about the heavy hitters than the small average recreational bettors who lose more frequently.
Promoting or seeing changes in almost any financial markets is much like getting people to stop smoking or obese people to lose weight. Change is difficult for a whole lot of folks and businesses. Since they say “talk is cheap”. On the flip side, I feel technology is becoming more prevalent in Sport Betting industry. Hopefully, it’s going to create a more vibrant market with better options as well as more competition in the sports betting community.